HVAC Market Outlook: Global Revenue Trends & Regional Forecasts (2019-2029)

The global HVAC market is on a strong growth trajectory, expected to reach 367.5 billion U.S. dollars by 2030 with a CAGR of 3.9%.

As an HVAC professional, I can tell you this: the global HVAC market is transforming in ways you and I couldn’t have imagined a decade ago.

Today, when we talk about heating, ventilation, and air conditioning, we’re no longer just referring to comfort systems. As cities grow and weather becomes more extreme, the need for heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is changing. New technologies are making these systems more energy-efficient. 

I will share the market revenue trends and regional forecasts from 2019 to 2029. You’ll get a complete outlook of where the HVAC market is headed over the next decade.

The Global HVAC Market Outlook & Evolution

Let’s start with the big picture.  As I mentioned earlier, according to a Statista report, the global heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) market is expected to grow significantly over the next decade.

Here’s what the global HVAC landscape looks like in numbers:

• Market size in 2019: $240.8 billion
• Projected market value by 2030: $367.5 billion
• Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): 3.9% from 2020 to 2030
• Expected unit sales by 2024: 151.1 million HVAC units

This growth isn’t just happening in one corner of the world. It’s global, with major shifts in regional demand and investment.

But where is this growth happening? Let’s explore regional trends next.

HVAC Revenue Forecast By Region

You might be wondering: which parts of the world are leading this change? Take a look at this snapshot below:

Source: Statista

As you can see, the Americas lead in revenue, while Asia-Pacific dominates in unit volume due to its sheer population and fast-paced urbanization.

These numbers reflect more than economic trends, they reflect changing lifestyles and urgent environmental needs. To understand how we got here, let’s briefly look back.

HVAC Market Opportunities & Growth

The HVAC market is growing across several key sectors:

Residential Sector

Smart home technology advancements are driving demand for HVAC systems that provide remote control, energy efficiency, and seamless integration with other smart devices.

Commercial Buildings

As Earth’s temperature is rising, businesses are upgrading HVAC systems to meet sustainability goals while enhancing indoor air quality, ensuring healthier environments for employees and customers.

Emerging Markets

Regions with rapid urbanization, particularly in Asia and Africa, offer significant opportunities for HVAC system installations as infrastructure expands.

These growth segments present the ideal space for targeted investments and innovations in HVAC technologies.

The Evolution Of HVAC: From Manual To Smart Systems

Let’s take a step back and look at the history of HVAC, it’s like flipping through the pages of a science and engineering revolution. From the early ideas of natural ventilation to today’s AI-powered climate control systems, HVAC has come a long way, and it’s still evolving fast.

Many of the HVAC systems we now take for granted are the result of groundbreaking work by scientific pioneers. Names like Nikolay Lvov, Michael Faraday, Rolla C. Carpenter, Willis Carrier, Edwin Ruud, Reuben Trane, Alice Parker, and even thermodynamics giants like James Joule, William Rankine, and Sadi Carnot laid the scientific and mechanical foundation for what we use today.

But the real turning point came in 1902, when Alfred Wolff designed one of the first comfort air conditioning systems for the New York Stock Exchange, while Willis Carrier installed a process air conditioning unit at the Sacketts-Wilhems Printing Company that same year. That was the birth of modern HVAC.

Source: Wikipedia

Then vs. Now: A Closer Look At HVAC Transformation

Here’s how HVAC has changed over the years, both in technology and in how it fits into our lives:

Source: Statista

The evolution of HVAC reflects a move toward advanced comfort, efficient energy use, and environmentally conscious indoor climate control, going far beyond just adding new technology.

Now, let’s break down the HVAC products leading this change.

Major HVAC Product Segments

Let’s take a closer look at the main HVAC product segments that define this evolving global industry:

1. Air Conditioning Systems

Air conditioning is the most widely recognized HVAC product category. Among the various types, mini split air conditioners have become especially popular.

Why?

Market Share: Mini split systems generate over half of the HVAC industry’s global sales revenue, mainly due to their early and widespread adoption in the residential sector.

Design & Use: These systems have both an indoor and outdoor unit, connected through tubing and electric wires, with no ductwork needed.

Global Relevance: As global temperatures rise, the demand for efficient cooling grows across both developed and emerging economies.

Source: Statista

The use of mini-splits reflects how the HVAC market responds to shifting climate demands and user preferences for localized, efficient cooling.

2. Heat Pumps

Heat pumps are one of the fastest-growing segments in the HVAC market, especially in Europe. What makes them different is that they offer both heating and cooling using a single unit.

Key market insights:

• In France, there were 6 million heat pumps in operation by 2023.
• Italy followed with over 4 million units, while Sweden had around 2.4 million.

Source: Statista

These numbers show how government incentives, energy policies, and climate goals are pushing the adoption of heat pumps. Unlike traditional systems, heat pumps move heat rather than generate it, which supports low-carbon goals and renewable integration.

While heat pumps are rising in popularity, furnaces still dominate in regions that experience long, harsh winters, particularly in North America.

Learn More: Current HVAC Technologies & Innovations In Use

As an HVAC expert, I see innovations raising the standard for indoor comfort and system performance, and we’re already putting them to work for our clients every day. These new technologies deliver smarter performance, cleaner air, and greater energy efficiency.

Inverter Systems

Inverter-driven compressors adjust speed based on real-time demand. This results in stable indoor temperatures, lower energy use, and longer equipment lifespan. Clients often experience quieter operation and improved comfort immediately.

Air Purification Add-Ons

Integrated air purifiers with HEPA filters, activated carbon, or UV-C lights enhance indoor air quality significantly. These upgrades work especially well for families with allergies or those living in high-pollution areas.

Smart Thermostats

Systems like Ecobee and Honeywell T10 learn usage patterns and optimize energy output. Homeowners enjoy remote control, energy savings, and seamless integration with modern smart homes.

However, innovation wouldn’t be possible without the major players. Let’s see who’s leading.

Who Is The Largest Manufacturer Of HVAC?

These companies are shaping the global HVAC landscape through advanced tech, smart home integrations, and efficient climate solutions.

Source: Statista

Next, let’s look at the challenges these giants and the industry as a whole are navigating.

Key Challenges In The Global HVAC Industry

As the global HVAC market continues to expand, it is also being tested by several critical challenges. These issues not only shape market dynamics but also influence how fast the industry can adapt to new demands, technologies, and sustainability goals.

Higher Equipment Costs

Across regions like the U.S., HVAC and refrigeration (HVAC-R) systems are becoming more expensive. This is impacting homeowners, commercial developers, and institutions alike, especially those aiming to modernize systems for energy efficiency or regulatory compliance.

Rising Energy Prices

HVAC systems are energy-intensive by nature. With global energy prices on the rise, particularly after recent economic shifts, the cost of running heating and cooling systems is becoming a heavier burden, especially in countries where climate control is essential year-round.

Skilled Labor Shortage

Finding experienced HVAC technicians and installers is becoming a serious concern. For example, in the UK, projections show about 147,000 HVAC workers by 2028, but most of these are expected to be in construction-focused roles (like installation). This shortage is limiting how fast new systems can be deployed and maintained.

Source: Statista

Addressing the Skilled Labor Shortage For The HVAC Industry

The HVAC industry faces a notable shortage of skilled technicians, challenging service quality, and maintenance efficiency. To combat this, the following strategies are key:

Training Programs

Invest in comprehensive training and certification programs to ensure new technicians are equipped with the necessary skills.

Apprenticeships

Partner with educational institutions to create apprenticeship opportunities, fostering hands-on experience.

Technology Integration

Leverage automation and remote diagnostics to ease the technician’s workload and enhance system efficiency.

Sustainability & Green HVAC Solutions

Sustainable HVAC design is now a standard in modern buildings. As energy codes become more stringent, we’re implementing greener solutions that support both performance and environmental responsibility.

As professionals in the field, we prioritize these technologies not just to meet regulations, but to build smarter, more resilient HVAC systems for the future.

Low-GWP Refrigerants

New-generation refrigerants like R32 and R454B offer high efficiency with lower environmental impact. These refrigerants meet evolving regulations and contribute to long-term climate goals.

Geothermal and Solar HVAC Systems

Geothermal systems harness the earth’s stable temperature, while solar-powered HVAC setups reduce reliance on the grid. Both options lower operational costs and help clients achieve long-term energy savings.

Renewable Energy Integration

HVAC systems are now designed to work seamlessly with solar panels and energy storage solutions. This integration maximizes system efficiency and supports greater energy independence.

With these current technologies and challenges, the future of HVAC remains promising, especially with smart systems. Let’s take a look at the future forecast.

What Is The Future Demand For HVAC?

As we step further into the era of smart homes and sustainable living, the HVAC industry continues to evolve rapidly. If you’re a homeowner, builder, or someone interested in how modern living is changing, you’ll find it fascinating to see HVAC systems becoming smarter, more efficient, and more eco-friendly.

Rising Demand Through Smarter Living

In the United States, nearly half of residential energy is used for heating, cooling, water heating, and refrigeration. This growing demand encourages individuals and companies to adopt energy-saving and intelligent HVAC systems that promote both comfort and sustainability.

Key Trends In Smart HVAC Technology

Source: Statista

Smart HVAC solutions now play a central role in modern living. As energy prices climb and awareness around environmental responsibility grows, the interest in smart, eco-conscious systems continues to expand. Whether you’re planning a renovation or staying updated on industry trends, it’s an exciting time to explore where HVAC is heading.

HVAC In Smart Cities And Buildings

Smart cities rely on intelligent building systems, and HVAC is at the center of it. As buildings become more connected, HVAC systems are evolving to deliver real-time responsiveness, operational efficiency, and data-driven control.

IoT-Integrated HVAC

Connected sensors track temperature, humidity, and occupancy patterns, adjusting airflow and energy use with precision. This ensures consistent comfort and optimized system performance.

Smart Building Management Systems

HVAC now works in coordination with lighting, security, and energy systems. Through centralized platforms, we manage entire building environments more efficiently than ever before.

Predictive Diagnostics

AI-powered systems analyze usage patterns to detect performance deviations early. This proactive approach extends equipment lifespan and supports continuous uptime.

Final Remarks

The HVAC market is evolving faster than ever, driven by innovation, rising climate demands, and the global push for sustainability. From the legacy of Carrier and Trane to the smart homes of today, HVAC systems are reshaping how we live, work, and interact with our environment.

I hope this research helps you navigate this change, whether you’re a homeowner, builder, or industry professional. Bookmark this guide or share it with someone who needs to stay ahead in HVAC.

FAQs

Is HVAC A Billion Dollar Industry?

The HVAC market is on track to reach 367.5 billion U.S. dollars by 2030, growing at a rate of 3.9% annually from 2020 onward. In the near term, the market is expected to hit 151.1 million units by 2024.

What Is The HVAC Market Outlook For 2025?

The global HVAC market was worth $240.8 billion in 2019 and is projected to reach $367.5 billion by 2030. This steady growth reflects ongoing demand for energy-efficient and climate-resilient systems.

How Fast Is The HVAC Industry Growing?

The HVAC market is growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% from 2020 to 2030.

Which Country Is Best For HVAC?

Based on revenue and innovation, countries like the United States, Japan, and China are leaders in HVAC manufacturing and adoption.

Who Makes the Most Money in HVAC?

Daikin Industries (Japan) leads globally with a revenue of approximately $36 billion in 2022.

What Is The Future Demand For HVAC?

Future demand will be driven by smart home adoption, sustainability goals, and the need for energy-efficient solutions in both residential and commercial sectors.

How Big Is The HVAC Industry?

The HVAC industry was valued at $240.8 billion in 2019 and is on track to hit $367.5 billion by 2030, driven by urban development and energy efficiency needs.

What Is The Projection For HVAC Career?

There is a skilled labor shortage, especially in the UK, suggesting strong job opportunities and demand for qualified HVAC professionals by 2028.

Methodology Of My HVAC Market Research

The forecast relies on a mix of primary data from Statista and secondary research across trusted industry sources to offer you comprehensive research. This mixed-source approach ensures accuracy, relevance, and a forward-looking view of global HVAC dynamics.

The research focused on:

• Market size and growth (in USD)
• Regional revenue trends (2019–2029)
• Key product categories like air conditioners and heat pumps
• Top manufacturers by 2022 revenue in USD
• Adoption of smart HVAC, AI, and IoT
• Sector challenges, including rising costs and labor shortages